2026 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS for ROUND ONE | fueled by Ray Varner Ford

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BY JESSE SMITHEY

All told, 40 of the 70 schools that comprise the 5Star Preps coverage area reached the 2026 playoffs.

And on Friday, some 29 playoff games will involve those 40 area teams.

After correctly picking 82.6 percent of games in the 2026 regular season, 5Star Preps will try to one-up itself here in the postseason.

Here are the 29 projected winners for Round One…

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CLASS 1A

Midway (6-4) at Cosby (9-1): Cosby quarterback Spencer Moore has an “it” quality, and he’ll lead the Eagles to their first-ever playoff win on Friday. THE PICK: Cosby 48, Midway 18.

Hampton (6-4) at Coalfield (9-1): Jack Treece, the QB1 at Coalfield, and wideout Bo Wilson have shown a special connection this season. That should show once again on Friday night. THE PICK: Coalfield 50, Hampton 21.

Rockwood (6-4) at Jellico (9-1): This one could be the best game of the night in Class 1A. Rockwood is no pushover. And if Jellico is going to win its first-ever playoff game, it has to stop Rockwood’s ground game. THE PICK: Jellico 22, Rockwood 21.

Cloudland (5-5) at Greenback (9-1): Greenback’s resurgence won’t end with the regular season. Senior standout Elliott Lindsey and crew have the potential to make a run. THE PICK: Greenback 40, Cloudland 14.

 

CLASS 2A

South Greene (3-7) at Tellico Plains (7-3): Tellico Plains last won a playoff game in 2024. The opponent? South Greene. THE PICK: Tellico Plains 33, South Greene 18.

Oneida (4-6) at Cumberland Gap (7-3): Cumberland Gap houses one of East Tennessee’s more slept-on running backs in Gabe Daniels, who’s rushed 1,565 yards this fall. THE PICK: Cumberland Gap 28, Oneida 20.

West Greene (1-8) at Eagleton (6-3): Eagleton’s playoff experience from 2025 and its QB-WR tandem of Mason Mitchell and Noel Meza-Flores should prove plenty in Round One. THE PICK: Eagleton 44, West Greene 13.

 

CLASS 3A

McMinn Central (6-4) at Unicoi County (9-1): Unicoi County QB Gunner Peterson has thrown for 2,063 yards and 23 touchdowns against two interceptions while running back Blaze Rice has 22 touchdowns and 1,061 yards. Yep, Gunner and Blaze. Hard to pick against names like that — especially when they produce. THE PICK: Unicoi County 33, McMinn Central 24.

Chuckey-Doak (5-5) at Meigs Co. (10-0): The host Tigers have won in the first round the last three years, and their roster is built to make a run to the state semifinals or beyond. THE PICK: Meigs County 56, Chuckey-Doak 21.

Kingston (7-3) at Gatlinburg-Pittman (6-4): This is a matchup that jumps off the lineup sheet, and it’ll feature two premier tailbacks in Kingston’s Mason Simpson (1,134 yards, 14 TDs) and G-P’s Marshal Gay (1,692 yards, 22 TDs). THE PICK: Kingston 24, Gatlinburg-Pittman 21.

Pigeon Forge (5-5) at Sweetwater (9-1): Heath Woods has found a way to flip Pigeon Forge’s fortunes in the second half of the season once again. But Sweetwater’s full body of work this fall earns our pick in the matchup. THE PICK: Sweetwater 37, Pigeon Forge 16.

 

CLASS 4A

Fulton (5-5) at Greeneville (10-0): Fulton won five of its final seven games to surge into the postseason but will have their hands full against a Greeneville team that has its sights set on another long postseason stay. THE PICK: Greeneville 45, Fulton 7.

Upperman (6-4) at Loudon (7-3): Upperman is a power-running football team. But when it does pass, it targets 6-foot-4, 230-pound Ole Miss tight end commit Colton Johnson (307 yards, 5 TDs). What bodes well for Loudon is that the Bees haven’t turned teams over much in the pass game nor have they logged a high number of sacks. THE PICK: Loudon 22, Upperman 21.

Cherokee (6-4) at Alcoa (10-0): Email was still in its infancy stages when Alcoa last lost in the first round (1996). THE PICK: Alcoa 56, Cherokee 6.

Anderson Co. (6-4) at Seymour (9-1): Seymour is hosting its first home postseason game since 2015 and looking for its first playoff victory since 2004. While the Eagles have been one of the surprise teams of the season, the experience of Anderson County’s program and its postseason success in the last handful of years should be the deciding factor. THE PICK: Anderson County 30, Seymour 21.

Elizabethton (6-4) at Gibbs (9-1): Gibbs won at Elizabethton in a first-round playoff game a season ago. The Eagles are even more confident and capable this time around. THE PICK: Gibbs 27, Elizabethton 17.

 

CLASS 5A

West (5-5) at Sevier County (7-3): The host Smoky Bears didn’t like being handed a runner-up state championship trophy in Chattanooga last season. They’re out to correct that. THE PICK: Sevier County 34, West 14.

Mo. West (5-5) at Powell (9-1): The host Panthers haven’t played their best in recent weeks but switching into the playoff mindset should kickstart them into gear. THE PICK: Powell 41, Morristown West 17.

McMinn Co. (6-4) at Lincoln County (8-1): Lincoln County might have the better record but many of those wins came against sub-.500 teams. Lincoln County dual-threat QB Diesen Ogle will present a challenge. But McMinn County’s defense should be up to the task, as it has two players with 21 tackles for loss or more. And, the Cherokees have 12 interceptions. THE PICK: McMinn County 23, Lincoln County 21.

Halls (5-5) at David Crockett (7-3): David Crockett dual-threat quarterback A.J. Wynn has thrown for more than 1,000 yards and rushed for more than 1,000 yards. Even if Halls is without some defensive standouts because of last week’s questionable ejections, the Red Devils still should get the win. THE PICK: Halls 21, David Crockett 14.

TN High (7-3) at Central (9-1): Tennessee High running back Elijah Plumbar (5-8, 160) is averaging 278.7 yards per game over his last six outings. The Vikings also have a dual-threat quarterback who complements Plumbar’s skillset well. But Central has the QB, the wideouts and the tailbacks to win a shootout. THE PICK: Central 49, TN High 35.

 

CLASS 6A

Oak Ridge (7-3) at Dobyns-Bennett (7-3): Oak Ridge fared well against Dobyns-Bennett in both the 2025 and 2026 regular-season meetings. The Wildcats won 42-38, though, and had to score twice in the fourth to keep D-B at bay. Oak Ridge limps into the playoffs after a sub-par showing in Week 11. Dobyns-Bennett played its best game of the season this past Friday night against rival Science Hill. THE PICK: Dobyns-Bennett 36, Oak Ridge 35.

Jefferson Co. (5-5) at Maryville (9-1): The Rebels don’t lose first-round games. THE PICK: Maryville 48, Jefferson County 8.

Hardin Valley (7-3) at Science Hill (7-2): With Science Hill’s star tailback injured, the probability of an HVA win rocketed up this week. THE PICK: HVA 24, Science Hill 21.

 

DIVISION II-A

Fayette Academy (6-4) at Concord (7-3): Fayette-Academy doesn’t throw it well. And that makes the defensive plan a bit easier for Concord. Look for the Lions to get their first-ever playoff win. THE PICK: Concord 38, Fayette Academy 17.

 

DIVISION II-AA

Lakeway (7-3) at Goodpasture (8-2): Goodpasture’s win total is solid but lacks quality wins. Lakeway need only hem up Goodpasture’s modest passing attack to get the win. THE PICK: Lakeway 34, Goodpasture 10.

Pope John Paul II (2-8) at CAK (9-1): CAK reached the state quarterfinals a season ago, and this iteration of CAK is more explosive offensively. THE PICK: CAK 49, PJPII 7.

Webb (2-8) at BGA (9-1): The Spartans have four losses by seven points or fewer, so they’re better than their record indicates. But BGA is the defending state champion and has a lineup featuring Power Four talents. THE PICK: BGA 41, Webb 9.

Northpoint (3-7) at Grace (9-1): The Rams know they’ll have to be on point in each round, given their place in the Division II-AA bracket. So expect Grace to play crisp, clean and efficient football on Friday night. THE PICK: Grace 56, Northpoint 12.

2026 RESULTS

Last Week: 35-7 (.833)
Overall: 360-76 (.826)

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