West’s Jack Keith (28). (Photo: John Fitzgerald/Indigo Productions).
By JESSE SMITHEY
After a struggle through an unpredictable regular season, the 5Star Preps prediction model has rebounded so far in the playoffs.
We’re winning 85.5 percent of our postseason predictions through two rounds, and have eight selections for you in this state-quarterfinal round.
Have a look and see which teams we project as winners on Friday …
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CLASS 1A
Coalfield (10-2) at Cloudland (11-1): Coalfield’s offensive line should prove key in this contest, and if it gives QB Cole Hines the time to throw he should find opportunities against this Cloudland defense. The problem is: Coalfield has to make an taxing road trip to play this game, and that might produce a slow start for the Yellow Jackets. Moreover, the Coalfield defense is tasked with stopping a lauded running back (Seth Birchfield) who has been a problem for many this fall. But the Yellow Jackets have primed for this moment all season and are no doubt out for semifinal revenge. To get that, they must win this game first. PICK: Coalfield 35, Cloudland 27.
CLASS 2A
Hampton (8-2) at Oneida (9-3): This clash of run games will obviously come down to execution. Hampton had five players last week log six or more carries, and QB Connor Jones led Hampton with three TDs runs. So the scout for Oneida won’t be tough. It’ll come down to reading their keys and staying disciplined. But the same could be said for Hampton’s defense in its scout of Oneida. The Indians had a pair of 100-yard tailbacks last week but throw a touch more than Hampton. Oneida has been one of the area’s surprise teams this season and is chasing the program’s first state semifinal appearance since 2008. But we’re looking for Hampton’s supposed advantage on the line to be the difference. PICK: Hampton 30, Oneida 20.
CLASS 3A
Pigeon Forge (9-2) at Alcoa (11-1): The Tornadoes took out some frustration on Gatlinburg-Pittman last week after not getting to play in the first round. Alcoa now has Pigeon Forge in its sights after not getting to play the Tigers (Covid reasons) in the regular season. PICK: Alcoa 56, Pigeon Forge 8.
Giles County (11-0) at Loudon (11-1): Thankful it didn’t have to make a three-hour bus trip, Loudon should be able to get the upper hand early in this contest from sheer comfort level. Plus, Giles County doesn’t get after the QB much, according to its stats. So that could mean Loudon QB Keaton Harig (48 TDs) will have time to throw. But from those who have seen Giles County this season, they’re supposedly legit — with plenty of athletes offensively to stress out a defense. We’ll trust our sources on this prediction. PICK: Giles County 27, Loudon 21.
CLASS 4A
Elizabethton (10-1) at Greeneville (12-0): Elizabethton comes in as the two-time defending state champion in Class 4A. Greeneville is trying to take the throne back, having won 4A in 2017 and 2018. The Greene Devils sent a message in Week 3 with a 30-point win over Elizabethton. But the Cyclones have improved since then and want to send a message right back at the Greene Devils. Still, Greeneville has the decided edge in talent this season and will not take this game for granted just because it won with ease in the regular season. Greeneville head coach Eddie Spradlen is a master at motivation, and he’ll have the Devils prepared. PICK: Greeneville 38, Elizabethton 21.
CLASS 5A
Rhea County (10-2) at Powell (10-2): Rhea County and Karns combined for 111 points last week, and the Eagles should prepare for a similar pace at Powell. The Panthers like to put up points and have a prolific passing game for such production. But Powell doesn’t get to see the Wing-T often, and that could open the door for some chunk plays by Rhea County and its ballyhooed running back. Still, Powell has the talent edge and more veteran leadership. That prevails in the end. PICK: Powell 48, Rhea County 42.
Central (8-3) at West (10-2): No Shannon Blair. No John Carlevato. No Trevon Barfield. Whatever the adversity, West has not only survived it all — but thrived somehow through it. They absolutely blasted Central in Week 11 in the Region 2-5A championship game, giving the Bobcats plenty of motivation to show better this second time around. But there’s a special chemistry, vibe even, on the West sideline this season. And while the Rebels have loved when 5Star Preps picks against them, they’ll have to derive motivation elsewhere. We’re siding with West. PICK: West 27, Central 17.
CLASS 6A
Farragut (6-6) at Maryville (12-0): Farragut has made a habit of playing close games this season (nine of 12 by seven points or fewer), but the Admirals didn’t fare well in their first meeting with the Rebels this season. And, Maryville has made 21 consecutive trips to the semifinals. They just don’t lose in this round, and they want to rematch with Oakland in the semifinals. PICK: Maryville 45, Farragut 21.
Last Week: 17-3 (.850)
Overall: 355-92 (.794)